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Black Rock

Emerging Markets Vs. the S&P500 - December 11,2023



  • Today's chart is one that has been on my Weekly Watch List, since I've been screening charts. It is the Emerging Markets ETF vs. the US S&P500. This week Charlie Bilello, at Creative Planning, made some nice notations on it so I'll just go with that, with credit to Charlie.

  • While I believe today that "Emerging Markets" is too broad a brush, as many specific geographic regions seem ready to outperform dramatically over the rest of this decade, and broad categorization will be a distraction, it's worth casting a global view sometimes. 

  • Below is one of my favorite quotes of all time. I transcribed this from an interview I heard with Jeremy Grantham on CNBC in November, 2010. It demonstrates the value and importance of monitoring for Relative Strength in portfolio diversification. 


  • My working theory is that Emerging Markets will experience a massive boom this decade. This, potential, outcome was triggered by their effective emancipation from the $US dollar system after the G7 shut down the Bretton Woods II money system by sanctioning Russia's foreign exchange reserves in early 2022. 

  • Big shifts are happening, and this chart is worth watching. I expect another leg higher in the Relative Strength of some geographies in the "Emerging Markets" basket of nations over the second half of this decade.


 
 
 

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